The Ukrainian Crisis - The Crisis is not Ukraine
An Open Letter
The Ukrainian Crisis - The Crisis is not Ukraine
First: Its History
1. We need to remember that Russia has always wanted to revive the Soviet Union legacy, as a basic state ideology, that has nothing to do with President Vladimir Putin’s goals or ambitions.
2. I remember on one of my visits to our Moscow office that I listened to President Putin speech delivered at one of Russia’s research centers. This was during the second year of his Presidency, where he said, "We have finalized the rebuilding of the Russian Federation and our principle message is to keep an eye on our geopolitical surroundings."
3. We need to understand that when NATO came into existence, America wanted this western alliance to contain Russia and not to allow it to become its parallel adversary.
4. Both sides have ambitions to change the current World Order. The US wants to continue to lead the world and Russia wants to return to restore its role as it was under the bi-polar system, when the world was governed by the US and its Western allies on one side and the Soviet Union and its allies on the other.
Second: What is this crisis really about?
1. The war on Ukraine is only the start of a comprehensive war in the whole of Europe, with America excluded initially, but it will likely develop into a global war before the end of this year; possibly a third World War.
2. China will undoubtedly stand with Russia as a steady and a strong ally from the moment the expected global World War begins.
3. In 1989, I took part in a seminar in one of the most important American research centers in Washington under the title of "Where will America be in 2020?" The conclusion of the three-day event was that the US would face an awesome economic opponent in the future, China, as economic rival. Therefore it was decided that America had to be prepared to face the challenge by all available means, because economic power is “power”.
4.Nuclear weapons are mere mutual deterrents and will not be used by any of the more than dozen countries owning them.
5. Today, the challenges are greater than ever, with the tide changing and the focus not on the USA but on Europe, with Ukraine in the middle of the crisis. Although Ukraine is not a member in NATO, this war will remain as a European War. Economic sanctions will be used as an alternative to active military participation. Economic sanctions were mainly invented by the US. Such sanctions were applied continuously but they reached their peak during President Trump’s era. Sanctions have proven to be a double-edged weapon that hurts both sides; the punisher and the punished, with perhaps the worst impact being on the punisher. America, may opt not to participate in actual fighting and therefore negative impact on it will be limited.
6. Sanctions will cause serious problems with respect to the the energy sector including supply and cost of both gas and oil. It remains to be seen who will be affected most and who will benefit. What is expected to follow is a war of mutual sanctions.
Third: Crisis Stages
1. The crisis however goes deeper than this. On the other side of the world is China, ready to re-take Taiwan through troop maneuvers as a reaction to any US-European action against Russia. Moscow believes that the widening of the conflict will ease the pressure on it. I strongly believe that the war on Ukraine is the first step towards a war on Taiwan which China historically considers as part of its territory. It is the same situation as Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine and Taiwan are related, with a war on Kyev being a prelude to a war on Taipei.
2. All this would lead to what I call the World War III. It will be a different kind of war because of distant military technologies used and the electronic warfare involved. Nobody expects Chinese troops to invade the USA, nor for American soldiers to occupy China.
Fourth: Its Future
1. The USA and Britain on one side, with China and Russia on the opposing side, will serve as the leaders of this World War.
2. As the Ukraine war started through provocations, so shall the Taiwan war. As a result, the entire world will be part of this war, whether they like it or not, with every country seeking to protect its interests and aspirations in the New World Order.
3. I had the opportunity to know of many attempts to reach an agreement between China and the U.S., one of which being an economic non-governmental summit which I was asked to moderate whose role is to propose solutions for a new world order to avoid war. All such attempts failed.
4. Ten years ago, I had the opportunity during an international Chinese conference on intellectual property, to sit during dinner next to the Chinese Minister and ask him about the existence of international coordination between China and Russia. He replied that it was not coordination, but rather a partnership in planning and execution.
5. The only possible solution I see is when the big four (US, China, Russia and the UK) gather on one table and reach agreement. This will not happen unless they are forced to do so in order to avoid the consequences of a World War.
6. Waiting for international resolutions, whether from the Security Council or others, will not achieve any more than what has been achieved in the case of Palestine, where conflicting parties have used their Veto power.
7. A new world order will only emerge when these parties agree and produce a new set of international agreements, as what happened after World War II. The conflict will deal with major issues, such as globalization of the internet, an international currency, punishment policies, the UN System and its Agencies, as well as the catastrophe of climate pollution which is threatening humanity.
8. The agreement about the establishment of a new world order is in the interest of the entire world, instead of the ‘law of the jungle’ that runs rampant today.
Fifth: Its Impact
1. In our regional surroundings, Iran has decided on taking a pro-Russian stance. As a NATO member, Turkey is placed in a difficult position. The Zionist enemy in Palestine is even in a more difficult position with the 'Nuclear Talks’ with Iran, with a Ukrainian Jewish president, and with a sizable Ukrainian Jewish community. Therefore, it is not strange for the President of the Zionist state to declare his sympathy with the Ukrainian people only.
2. Arab countries, which are my main concern, must be cautious to sustain the least amount of damage to their varied economies. I call on all of our leaders, to study and take protective procedures, including the securing of basic life needs, such as food, medicine and digital transformation.
3. Perhaps the Secretary General of the League of Arab States, will consider calling a consultative meeting, not take any decisions or stands, but rather to share thoughts to safeguard the interests of each Arab state and the region as a whole.
4. Finally, life has taught me that crises are opportunities for those who chose to use them.
Talal Abu-Ghazaleh1/ 3/2022